Global air passenger traffic is expected to recover to 88 per cent of pre-Covid levels by 2022, as the vaccine rollout and testing advancements see more travellers return to the skies, according to the IATA.
The report by the IATA and Tourism Economics which looked at a long-term view for post-Covid passenger demand recovery demonstrated that people remain eager to travel in the short- and long-term.
In 2023, global passenger numbers are expected to surpass pre-Covid-19 levels: IATA
It also predicted that global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 52 per cent of pre-Covid levels (2019) by the end of this year, and surpass pre-Covid levels (105 per cent) by 2023.
By 2030, global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion. That would be seven per cent below the pre-Covid forecast and an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth due to Covid-19.
Beyond 2030, air travel is expected to slow, due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalisation, giving average annual growth between 2019 and 2039 of 3.2 per cent. IATA’s pre-Covid growth forecast for this period was 3.8 per cent.
The recovery in passenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), which is expected to grow by an annual average of three per cent between 2019 and 2039. This is owing to the expected strength of domestic markets like China with large passenger numbers and shorter distances.
“I am always optimistic about aviation. We are in the deepest and gravest crisis in our history. But the rapidly growing vaccinated population and advancements in testing will return the freedom to fly in the months ahead,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
“And when that happens, people are going to want to travel. The immediate challenge is to reopen borders, eliminate quarantine measures and digitally manage vaccination/testing certificates.”
While the damage caused by Covid-19 will be long-lasting, IATA’s study showed that people have retained their need and desire to travel, with news of borders reopening met with an instant surge in bookings.
The most recent example is the 100-percentage point spike in bookings from the UK to Portugal when the UK’s “Green List” was announced in early May.
IATA also predicted that vaccination rates in developed countries, with the exception of Japan, should exceed 50 per cent of the population by 3Q2021.
“This should be a clarion call to governments to get ready. The travel and tourism sector is a major contributor to GDP. People’s livelihoods are at stake. To avoid greater long-term economic and social damage, restart must not be delayed,” said Walsh.
“Governments can facilitate a safe restart with policies that enable restriction-free travel for vaccinated people, and testing alternatives for those unable to be vaccinated. Governments must also be ready with processes to digitally manage the vaccine or test certificates – ensuring that a safe restart is also efficient.”
Global air passenger traffic is expected to recover to 88 per cent of pre-Covid levels by 2022, as the vaccine rollout and testing advancements see more travellers return to the skies, according to the IATA.
The report by the IATA and Tourism Economics which looked at a long-term view for post-Covid passenger demand recovery demonstrated that people remain eager to travel in the short- and long-term.
It also predicted that global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 52 per cent of pre-Covid levels (2019) by the end of this year, and surpass pre-Covid levels (105 per cent) by 2023.
By 2030, global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion. That would be seven per cent below the pre-Covid forecast and an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth due to Covid-19.
Beyond 2030, air travel is expected to slow, due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalisation, giving average annual growth between 2019 and 2039 of 3.2 per cent. IATA’s pre-Covid growth forecast for this period was 3.8 per cent.
The recovery in passenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), which is expected to grow by an annual average of three per cent between 2019 and 2039. This is owing to the expected strength of domestic markets like China with large passenger numbers and shorter distances.
“I am always optimistic about aviation. We are in the deepest and gravest crisis in our history. But the rapidly growing vaccinated population and advancements in testing will return the freedom to fly in the months ahead,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
“And when that happens, people are going to want to travel. The immediate challenge is to reopen borders, eliminate quarantine measures and digitally manage vaccination/testing certificates.”
While the damage caused by Covid-19 will be long-lasting, IATA’s study showed that people have retained their need and desire to travel, with news of borders reopening met with an instant surge in bookings.
The most recent example is the 100-percentage point spike in bookings from the UK to Portugal when the UK’s “Green List” was announced in early May.
IATA also predicted that vaccination rates in developed countries, with the exception of Japan, should exceed 50 per cent of the population by 3Q2021.
“This should be a clarion call to governments to get ready. The travel and tourism sector is a major contributor to GDP. People’s livelihoods are at stake. To avoid greater long-term economic and social damage, restart must not be delayed,” said Walsh.
“Governments can facilitate a safe restart with policies that enable restriction-free travel for vaccinated people, and testing alternatives for those unable to be vaccinated. Governments must also be ready with processes to digitally manage the vaccine or test certificates – ensuring that a safe restart is also efficient.”