Global travel defies numerous crises

Passengers from Europe, the Americas and the Far East are making more bookings and taking more flights despite recent terrorist attacks and ongoing geo-political wrangles, according to ForwardKeys.

The company revealed that Thailand is benefiting from the BRIC boom, which is helping to fill a gap left by a reduction in Chinese visitors after the Thai government discouraged cheaper tour groups from China since September 2016.

On the recovery of BRIC countries, ForwardKeys found that Brazil has been on the up since the end of its political crisis in 2016, and Russia had its first positive monthly performance, in December 2016, since its annexation of Crimea in March 2014. Both countries’ currencies are recovering in value – indicating more travel to come.

Forward bookings show that four out of five of the top rising destinations for Brazilians are in Europe; Indian travellers prefer Asia-Pacific; and Russians like Georgia, Czech Republic, the UAE and Italy.

Meanwhile, forward bookings to the US have picked up after the uncertainty that president Donald Trump’s travel ban introduced, mainly due to the Easter holiday shift.

Longhaul arrivals in Western Europe are starting to surge again, ForwardKeys said, reaching visitor numbers higher than those seen before the Paris attacks in November 2015.

China, the Netherlands, the UK, and Germany are fuelling the increase in forward bookings to Canada and Mexico, which are setting the pace for longhaul arrivals in North America.

ForwardKeys added that “China’s power to make or break a destination is demonstrated by the recent trend in visitor numbers to South Korea”. International arrivals in South Korea (for stays of four to eight nights) fell 10 per cent in 1Q2017 due to cancellations by Chinese tour groups in March, while forward bookings for the same category are currently lagging 28 per cent.

ASEAN countries are the most likely to benefit from South Korea’s visitor crisis as they have the increased capacity for visitors from China, the company stated.

The findings will be presented at the World Travel and Tourism Council’s Global Summit taking place in Bangkok today and tomorrow.

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