Global passenger demand to soar by 2017, Asia-Pacific strongest: IATA

AIRLINES can expect a 31 per cent rise in passenger numbers to 3.9 billion by 2017 – an increase of 930 million over 2012’s – with Asia-Pacific accounting for nearly one-third of new passengers, according to the IATA Airline Industry Forecast 2013-2017 released yesterday.

Demand is predicted to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4 per cent for 2013-2017, higher than the 4.3 per cent for 2008-2012, largely reflecting the negative impact of 2008’s global financial crisis.

Of the new passengers, approximately 292 million will be carried on international routes and 638 million on domestic routes.

The emerging economies of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific will see the strongest growth with CAGR of 6.3 per cent and 5.7 per cent, followed by Africa (5.3 per cent) and Latin America (4.5 per cent).

“The fact that the Asia-Pacific region – led by China and the Middle East – will deliver the strongest growth over the forecast period is not surprising. Governments in both areas recognise the value of the connectivity provided by aviation to drive global trade and development,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO.

Routes within or connected to China will be the single largest driver of growth, accounting for 24 per cent of new passengers during the forecast period. Of the anticipated 227.4 million additional passengers, 195 million will be domestic and 32.4 million international.

Asia-Pacific is expected to add around 300 million passengers. Of these, around 225 million or 75 per cent are expected to be domestic passengers.

With 677.8 million domestic passengers in 2017, the US will continue to be the largest single market for domestic passengers, although it will add only 70 million passengers (2.2 per cent CAGR) over the forecast period, reflecting the market’s maturity.

China is firmly established in second place (487.9 million passengers in 2017, 10.2 per cent CAGR). The US also will reclaim the top spot from Germany for international passengers by the end of the forecast period. Germany will add 27.2 million passengers to the 149.4 million in 2012 (3.4 per cent CAGR), while the US will add 28.2 million, rising from 149.3 million in 2012 to 177.5 million (3.5 per cent CAGR) in 2017.

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