Chinese outbound travellers, the third-largest source of visitors and the largest source of international tourism spending in 2019, are projected “to recover in aggregate in 2027” and rank number one by 2030.
Michael Shoory, head of APAC Tourism Analysis at Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, said: “We have downgraded our near-term forecasts as data has disappointed, but long-run outlook has remained solid.”
Speaking at a recent Dragon Trail webinar, Shoory said China will continue to drive global tourism growth, albeit at a slower pace. Relative to 2019 levels, outbound volumes are expected to reach around 50 per cent by 2030.
China is forecast to outpace other outbound markets later in the decade and gain further prominence despite a weakening economic outlook, driven by uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, softer consumer sentiment, and safety and security concerns in destinations such as Thailand and parts of South-east Asia.
The market is expected to expand in the “travelling households” category over the coming decade, supporting outbound growth, he noted.
Data indicates that Chinese outbound travel will recover more strongly in the Middle East by 2027, reaching around 60 per cent of 2019 levels. Latin America and Asia-Pacific are projected to reach approximately 20 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively.
By 2030, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore are expected to see the strongest growth compared with 2019 levels, while the US and Taiwan are projected to be among the weakest performers. Shoory added that there are downside risks for travel to Japan, although the full impact remains unclear.
Chinese travellers are expected to remain high spenders, averaging just under US$500 per night in 2024, with a slight dip projected by 2030.
According to Shoory, the propensity for outbound travel remains relatively low in China, pointing to significant long-term upside potential, particularly if a larger share of the domestic travel market shifts towards international trips.
