How will the tourism market hold up in the year ahead? The region’s travel business leaders gaze into their crystal balls and predict where the sunny, cloudy and stormy spots will be in 2015
SINGAPORE By Paige Lee Pei Qi
Judy Lum
Group vice president of sales and marketing, Tour East
UK tour operators have reported double-digit growth in forward bookings compared with last year, and we are also seeing improvement in some parts of Europe. As our core markets are primarily longhaul, this is good news for Tour East.
UK tour operators have reported double-digit growth in forward bookings compared with last year, and we are also seeing improvement in some parts of Europe. As our core markets are primarily longhaul, this is good news for Tour East.
The Russian rouble has devalued to an all-time low since 1998 and this will affect the growth forecast for this market. Sanctions from Europe and the US are affecting the Russian economy and although the government is looking to Asia, the adverse economic impact will remain for a long while.
MALAYSIA By S Puvaneswary
Mona Abdul Manap
Sales & marketing manager, Planet Borneo Tours & Travel Services
Arrivals from Singapore and Europe are expected to increase in 2015 due to our targeted marketing efforts towards these markets in 2014. In Europe, we expect an increase from France, Poland and the UK; we noticed an increase in interest for Borneo among smaller tour operators from these countries at trade fairs.
Apart from Singapore, the ASEAN market is likely to be so-so, due to our focus on adventure tours, which are not of particular interest to ASEAN travellers.
The China market is expected to continue to fare badly in 2015. This market has declined drastically in 2014, after the disappearance of MH370 and we expect a slow recovery.
INDONESIA By Mimi Hudoyo
Umberto Cadamuro
COO, inbound, Pacto
India and the US are going to shine as they did in 2014, given their rebounding economies. Indonesia might not be the cheapest but it is definitely the best value-for-money destination in the region, and these guys know how to travel in style!
After a strong performance in 2014, a quickly weakening euro against the US dollar might push Europeans towards Thailand – which, unlike us, uses local currency for quotations – plus the rupiah is weakening against the US dollar as well. Does this sound like (a reason to) waive the visa on arrival for the Europeans?
I do not foresee any (rainy season) in 2015. I would just keep an eye on how low the Aussie dollar will go against the US dollar – 0.80 might spell trouble!
VIETNAM By Xinyi Liang-Pholsena
Tan Robert
Business development director, Lac Hong Voyages
South-east Asia and India, as airlines are adding more flights from these areas. With LCCs and full-service carriers starting routes to Vietnam – eg. Royal Brunei Airlines has resumed services to Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in November 2014, AirAsia is flying direct from Johor Bahru to HCMC, and Singapore Airlines has started a third flight from Singapore to HCMC since December 18 – ASEAN will do well, barring any economical, natural or political crisis.
Europe, due to its unstable economic situation. Our strongest market in Europe was Spain, which has slowed down dramatically since early-2014 with only one or two bookings per quarter.
China, as Chinese outbound travellers are moving to other countries like South Korea and India, in addition to the political fallout between (China and Vietnam). The mainland Chinese are very patriotic, so no countermeasures can be done unless political ties improve. However, we are still maintaining contact with Chinese customers and keeping our fingers crossed that ties will improve soon.
MYANMAR By Oliver Slow
Aung Naing
Managing director, EPG Travel Company
Traditionally, the strongest countries for Myanmar’s travel business are central and northern Europe, the US and the UK. All these countries remain very strong both for group tourists and FITs.
Due to their ongoing economic issues, potential clients from countries like Spain and Italy are still ‘licking their wounds’ so to speak, and we do not expect much business from this area in the near future.
Myanmar, as an emerging market, does not really fall into this category at the moment.
THAILAND By Greg Lowe
Hans van den Born
Managing director, Diethelm Travel Thailand
The Scandinavian market is where we expect continued strong performance. We even have repeat (Scandinavian) customers who want to stay in the same resort each year, and if possible, the same room.
Russia is still there for us as our clients are at the wealthy end of the spectrum and tend to be less reliant on the rouble and exposed to the current problems in their economy. That said, they will be affected to some extent.
s with 2014, it will be the Middle East, not so much Dubai and the Gulf states but countries like Lebanon and Syria. We have a number of clients in those markets, but given the current instability there and the likelihood of these problems continuing for some time, those markets will remain weak.
HONG KONG By Prudence Lui
Michael Wu
Managing director, Gray Line Tours
China, thanks to the strong same-day FIT traffic from Guangdong province. However, the Individual Visit Scheme covers only 49 cities in China so growth for overnight arrivals will slow to about five, six per cent this year.
The Philippines is a very stable market already and Filipinos love visiting Hong Kong Disney-land. However, the Philippines is not a hot destination for Hongkongers so air seat demand is not huge. This has means a sufficient supply and affordable airfares for the Philippine leisure travel market.
The Japanese market won’t do well due to the depreciating yen. The impact of Occupy Central on the Japanese market is obvious because of the emphasis the nation puts on security. Travel operators still remain cautious and it may take another six months to see whether they send their groups again.
MACAU By Prudence Lui
Andy Wu
Managing director, Gray Line Tours of Macau
South Korea will continue to rise this year as Macau is a popular destination for Koreans. The stable Korean won will help to push more traffic.
Malaysia is a big market and has been a stable source for years, so we don’t expect any dramatic change. Malaysians love coming to Macau, especially for gourmet experiences.
The serious yen depreciation weakens Japanese consumption power overseas as well as their desire to go abroad.
PHILIPPINES By Rosa Ocampo
Marjorie Aquino
Inbound sales and marketing manager, Blue Horizons Travel and Tours
The UK has grown significantly in volume in 2014 because of Philippine Airlines’ direct Manila-London flights. We have been getting a lot of enquiries from the high-end markets in Germany, Switzerland and Italy, plus enquiries from Spain as its financial crisis seems to be over.
Asian markets including Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand are steady; we have not really seen an increase in volume. We have clients from Hong Kong but they are mostly expats.
China, unless the travel advisory against the Philippines is lifted, and Russia, due to its economic uncertainties.
CHINA By Caroline Boey
Olivia Au
Deputy general manager, Century Holiday Travel Group Shenzhen Office
India is likely to do well as many (Indian visitors) are crossing to the Pearl River Delta (from Hong Kong), due to convenient transportation, ease of entry, the number of Indian restaurants and stable hotel rates. Vietnam is also expected to do well for the same reasons.
Mature South-east Asian markets such as Singapore and Thailand have direct air access to many countries, and travellers consider China as a destination they can visit any time.
Although there is strong demand for travel to Hong Kong and China from the Philippines, traffic is being affected for political reasons.
INDIA By Rohit Kaul
Subhash Goyal
Chairman, STIC Travel Group
Germany, as it has been a traditional key market for India. The extension of e-visa services to tourists from Germany in 2014 will further boost arrival numbers.
The US economy is still recovering, plus the US is one of the 43 countries that the Indian government last year extended e-visa facility to.
France was not included in the list of 43 countries allowed e-visas in 2014. If France is not added to the list soon, I expect inbound from France will be stormy.
This article was first published in TTG Asia, January 16, 2015 issue, on page 3. To read more, please view our digital edition or click here to subscribe.
Additional reporting from S Puvaneswary, Mimi Hudoyo, Xinyi Liang Pholsena, Oliver Slow, Greg Lowe, Prudence Lui, Rosa Ocampo, Caroline Boey, Rohit Kaul
