Simon Baptist, principal economist, Visa Asia Pacific, discusses 2026 spending trends, the effects of economic uncertainty, and how affluent demand and digital payments are redefining Asia-Pacific tourism
Could you please share with us the early outlook for the Asia-Pacific region’s biggest consumer and economic payment trends for the year ahead?
Our latest indicators, including the Spending Momentum Index (SMI) Report for 4Q2025, show a region moving in different gears: some markets are easing after very strong rebounds, while others are stabilising as cost pressures moderate. What’s most notable is that spending patterns are being shaped less by a single regional trend and more by local factors, from household purchasing power to price sensitivity and category‑level shifts.
Across our network, we’re seeing three forces shape spending: travel, trade, and the growing influence of AI. Travel remained the standout category in 2025, expanding at roughly 2.5 times the pace of overall spend and e‑commerce penetration continued to rise, especially in goods and travel. Taken together, the region is moving forward with fast paced digital adoption and sustained demand anchored by travel.
What are the top three new insights into 2025 spending behaviour across the region, especially cross-border payment flows and their evolving role in consumer behaviour?
When we look across our data, a few shifts in spending behaviour stand out. We’re seeing consumers gravitate back towards goods as they look for better value. In several categories, wholesale prices have been easing, particularly in areas like automotive and retail goods, which is making products feel more affordable relative to some service categories.
Second, travel is still a major driver of spending. It was one of the fastest‑growing categories last year, and inbound flows stayed solid. That strength naturally carries through into cross‑border shopping and online purchases linked to travel.
The momentum is fairly broad across the region. Both outbound and inbound spending rose in many markets, and our SMI Report reinforces this picture – travel-loving markets such as Hong Kong saw stronger momentum in 4Q2025, while Japan benefited from improving domestic demand.
Overall, the region is becoming more connected in how people combine travel, e‑commerce, and cross‑border purchases.
What are your thoughts on the spending confidence of Asian markets in 2026, taking into account VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) conditions?
We expect spending confidence to remain uneven across Asia in 2026. Many households are adjusting to higher living costs, while others are benefiting from stronger labour markets and stabilising economic conditions. The affluent show higher levels of spending confidence as many of them are feeling wealthy because of rising asset prices; for the newly urbanising middle classes there is more uncertainty about the pace of jobs growth because of ongoing trade adjustments and AI, and so they are holding back a little.
Across emerging Asia, we see spending growth normalising after a strong surge in 2024 and early 2025 in many markets. Indonesia and Thailand eased more sharply, while India and Vietnam moderated more gradually. This looks less like a slowdown and more like a return to a sustainable pace as post‑pandemic effects fade.
How are tourists currently paying when visiting South-east Asia? What is changing, and why is this information important for destinations and merchants to know?
Tourists visiting South-east Asia are increasingly choosing digital payment methods. Cross‑border card transactions are growing faster than domestic spend, reflecting travellers’ comfort with using cards and digital wallets across their entire journey. This aligns with the broader strength in travel, one of the fastest‑growing categories in the region, expanding roughly 2.5 times faster than overall consumption in 2025.
Our economic signals point to the same pattern. Tourism‑linked categories supported consumer momentum across the region, and cultural tourism is drawing strong inbound growth, with many South-east Asian markets recording high increases in payment volumes. With digital usage rising and online travel platforms gaining share, visitors now expect seamless cross‑border acceptance wherever they go.
What do the affluent spending patterns tracked by Visa reveal about evolving priorities?
From our analysis, affluent consumers continue to be strong contributors in the region, contributing nearly three‑quarters of all new spending in 2025. They grew their spend roughly three times more than other cardholder groups on travel, entertainment and retail goods. This segment is driving much of the region’s travel recovery, especially in markets with large affluent bases like Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan.
At the same time, discretionary spending varies across markets, with Australia recently softening due to inflation and tight monetary policy, while New Zealand has seen broader gains as borrowing costs eased. For destinations, this means adopting a balanced approach, offering good‑value experiences for cost‑conscious travellers while also curating more premium, experiential options for affluent visitors who increasingly prioritise authenticity over excess.
If advising a South-east Asian NTO today, what is the single most important spending signal from your 2026 outlook to anchor marketing strategy over the next 18 months?
The clearest signal is the continued strength of travel‑related demand. Travel has been the fastest‑growing major consumer category – around 2.5 times the pace of total spends in 2025 – and we saw tourism‑linked categories play an important role in lifting spending momentum.
As travellers become more digital‑first, supported by rising e‑commerce penetration and greater use of online travel platforms, ensuring seamless digital payment experiences will remain essential.
