After stronger than expected recovery in 2022, this year could see international tourism arrivals return to pre-pandemic levels in Europe and the Middle East.
Based on UNWTO’s forward-looking scenarios for 2023, global international tourist arrivals could reach 80 per cent to 95 per cent of pre-pandemic levels this year, depending on the extent of the economic slowdown, the ongoing recovery of travel in Asia-Pacific and the evolution of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, among other factors.
Meanwhile, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home in response to the challenging economic climate.
All regions bouncing back
According to UNWTO’s new data, more than 900 million tourists travelled internationally in 2022 – double the number recorded in 2021 though still 63 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.
Every global region recorded notable increases in international tourist numbers. Arrivals in the Middle East climbed to 83 per cent of pre-pandemic numbers, while Europe reached nearly 80 per cent of pre-pandemic levels as it welcomed 585 million arrivals in 2022. Africa and the Americas both recovered about 65 per cent of their pre-pandemic visitors, while Asia-Pacific reached only 23 per cent, due to stronger pandemic-related restrictions which have started to be removed only in recent months.
The first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of 2023 also analyses performance by region and looks at top performers in 2022, including several destinations which have already recovered 2019 levels.
UNWTO secretary-general Zurab Pololikashvili said: “A new year brings more reason for optimism for global tourism. UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty. Economic factors may influence how people travel in 2023 and UNWTO expects demand for domestic and regional travel to remain strong and help drive the sector’s wider recovery.”
Chinese tourists set to return
UNWTO foresees the recovery to continue throughout 2023 even as the sector faces up to economic, health and geopolitical challenges. The recent lifting of Covid-19 related travel restrictions in China, the world’s largest outbound market in 2019, is a significant step for the recovery of the tourism sector in Asia-Pacific and worldwide.
In the short term, the resumption of travel from China is likely to benefit Asian destinations in particular, shaped by the availability and cost of air travel, visa regulations and Covid-19-related restrictions in the destinations. By mid-January a total of 32 countries had imposed specific travel restrictions related to travel from China, mostly in Asia and Europe.
At the same time, strong demand from the US, backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the region and beyond. Europe will continue to enjoy strong travel flows from the US, partly due to a weaker euro versus the US dollar.
Notable increases in international tourism receipts have been recorded across most destinations, in several cases higher than their growth in arrivals. This has been supported by the increase in average spending per trip due to longer periods of stay, the willingness by travellers to spend more in their destination and higher travel costs due to inflation.
However, the economic situation could translate into tourists adopting a more cautious attitude in 2023, with reduced spending, shorter trips and travel closer to home.
Furthermore, continued uncertainty caused by the Ukraine-Russian conflict and other mounting geopolitical tensions, as well as health challenges related to Covid-19, also represent downside risks and could weigh on tourism’s recovery in the months ahead.
The latest UNWTO Confidence Index shows cautious optimism for January-April, higher than the same period in 2022. This optimism is backed by the opening up in Asia and strong spending numbers in 2022 from both traditional and emerging tourism source markets, with France, Germany and Italy, as well as Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia, all posting strong results.
What trends are you seeing in the needs of international visitors and how are you accommodating them?
He joined Belmond in 2020 as divisional managing director for Asia-Pacific where he has since led the company’s Asian hotels through the pandemic, developing and implementing plans of ambition as well as playing an active role in multiple steering committees that have led to the rollout of strategic initiatives across the company.
Singapore tourism is expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2024 on the back of a strong recovery trajectory in 2022 and continued growth momentum this year, said Singapore Tourism Board (STB) officials at this morning’s Year-in-Review conference.
Exceeding STB’s forecast of four to six million visitors, the city-state’s international visitor arrivals (IVA) hit 6.3 million in 2022 – about 33 per cent of 2019’s IVA – with key source markets Indonesia (1.1 million), India (686,000) and Malaysia (591,000) leading the way.
Tourism receipts are estimated to reach S$13.8 billion (US$10.4 billion) to S$14.3 billion, about 50 to 52 per cent of 2019’s takings with top markets, Indonesia, India and Australia contributing S$1.1 billion, S$704 million, and S$633 million respectively.
The average length of stay in Singapore was about 4.81 days (post-quarantine period), compared to 3.36 days for the same period in 2019.
Arrivals were boosted by a number of marquee events in 2022, such as the Formula 1 Singapore Airlines Singapore Grand Prix 2022 that drew a record attendance of 302,000, and Singapore Fintech Festival, which attracted a record turnout from over 115 countries.
In tandem with the stronger demand for leisure and business travel, Singapore’s hotel industry posted an AOR of 79.1 per cent from April to December 2022, compared to 87.3 per cent in the same period in 2019. ARR during this period increased by 17 per cent to S$260, while RevPAR went up by 6.2 per cent to S$206.
In 2022, Singapore’s position as a regional cruise hub also strengthened with more than 230 ship calls and a passenger throughput of 1.2 million, about two-thirds of pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
With increasing flight connectivity and capacity as well as China’s gradual reopening, STB expects the growth momentum to spill into 2023. IVA is expected to reach around 12 million to 14 million visitors, bringing in approximately S$18 billion to S$21 billion in tourism receipts – around two-thirds to three-quarters of 2019 levels.
STB chief executive Keith Tan said the IVA projections are impacted by China’s speed of recovery – “how fast they open and flights are restored”.
He expects to see Chinese arrivals returning to 30 to 60 per cent of 2019’s numbers by the end of 2023.
Moving into the new year, STB will continue to support the development of new and refreshed offerings, such as Bird Paradise @ Mandai Wildlife Reserve, and pump S$110 million into boosting business and leisure events over the next two years. The new year has kicked off strongly with some high-profile events, such as Art SG, South-east Asia’s largest art fair, and Sail GP, which made its Asian debut last week.
Destination marketing through the SingapoReimagine campaign will be intensified in all key markets while the SingapoReimagine Marketing Programme will help local tourism and lifestyle businesses promote Singapore.
To alleviate the manpower crunch, STB will continue to help the tourism sector ramp up hiring, support manpower needs and provide assistance for digital transformation industry-wide. As of September 2022, the total tourism workforce is around 65,000 – about 78 per cent of 2019 levels.
Summing up, Tan said: “To sustain our growth in 2023 and beyond, we will expand our partnerships, build up a rich year-round calendar of events, ramp up investment in new and refreshed products and experiences, and continue to support industry efforts to build the capabilities they need to meet consumer demands.”