Tourists are returning to Asia-Pacific at an accelerated pace, with latest data showing that the recovery trajectory is also outpacing other global regions. In fact, projections suggest that Asia-Pacific is growing nearly twice as fast as its competitors in the final quarter of 2024. This signals a healthy momentum for the region as it regains its share of international visitors.

PATA’s forecast for the year suggests an 80 to 90 per cent recovery in visitor arrivals between a mild (best case), medium and severe scenario, up from 73.8 per cent in 2023. By 2025, arrivals could reach 611.08 million, surpassing 2019 levels.“Our mid-year forecast report published for 2024 to 2026 reinforces the strong gains we’re seeing in the Asia-Pacific region,” said Noor Ahmad Hamid, CEO at PATA.

“This upward trend is expected to continue, with 761.84 million international visitor arrivals projected for 2026. We hope this robust growth will be experienced by all destinations within the Asia-Pacific region, solidifying its position as a global powerhouse in the tourism industry,” he said.

Optimism around the region’s recovery is echoed in ForwardKeys’ research, which recorded a 33 per cent surge in international arrivals from January to August 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.

Its data for 4Q2024 is impressive for the region, pointing to a 19 per cent growth in international arrivals over the same period last year, compared to 10 per cent for Europe and five per cent for the Americas.

“While the region still lags behind pre-pandemic levels, the current pace of year-on-year growth signals continued recovery and highlights the pent-up demand for travel within this region in the coming year,” said Oliver Ponti, director of intelligence & marketing, ForwardKeys.

This growing demand is especially evident in key destinations like Japan, Thailand, China, Singapore, and Vietnam. Japan, in particular, has witnessed a 44 per cent rise in arrivals, with its weakened yen making it a big draw for tourists and shoppers alike.

Separately, a Mastercard Travel Trends report in May also revealed Japan was the number one destination worldwide, with a record-breaking three million international visitors arriving in March 2024. By July, UN Tourism reported that this figure had climbed to 3.3 million.

“Thailand and Singapore have also gained popularity, especially among Chinese travellers, due to visa-free policies,” Ponti told TTG Asia. “Similarly, China’s phased introduction of visa-free entry for citizens of 19 countries has contributed to its surge in arrivals.”

He added that increased seat capacity and relaxed visa regulations across the region have made international travel more accessible.

ForwardKeys also reported that Thailand saw a 23 per cent rise in international visitors, while China’s visa-easing policies led to a significant 135 per cent jump in arrivals. Singapore and Vietnam also posted solid gains, with inbound travel growing by 16 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.

Despite the region’s impressive recovery, several headwinds remain. Noor told TTG Asia that given current conditions, the medium scenario for recovery is the most likely path by 2026.

“Factors such as pent-up demand for travel, the reopening of China, and the resilience of markets like India and South-east Asia support the (medium) outlook. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, fluctuating economic conditions, and the need to rebuild air capacity could affect the pace of recovery. To navigate these uncertainties, destinations must prioritise market diversification and take pre-emptive actions to avoid the disruptions,” he said.

Noor also pointed to three key trends likely to influence future travel patterns in the region. First, the increasing use of AI in streamlining booking processes, mobile payments, and delivering more personalised travel experiences.

Second, the rise of intra-regional and multi-generational travel, including three generations travelling together, replacing group tours and FITs.

Third, shifting source markets are creating new opportunities for destinations.

“This is where while China remains the dominant outbound market, emerging markets like India, South-east Asia, and the Middle East & North Africa regions are driving a new wave of middle- and high-income travellers.

“These markets present significant opportunities for destinations seeking to diversify their visitor base,” he said.

WTTC projects that while Asia-Pacific’s tourism sector is expected to grow by 24.5 per cent year-on-year, this figure remains 15.3 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.

Nevertheless, the WTTC highlights that by 2034, the region’s GDP contribution is expected to reach US$5.83 trillion, a 12.5 per cent increase from 2024, further underscoring Asia-Pacific’s long-term potential as a leading force in global tourism.