Thai hotel operators expect overall foreign tourist numbers in 2026 to remain flat compared with last year, particularly among three-star and below properties reliant on shorthaul markets, excluding China. Anticipated growth in longhaul arrivals is expected to be offset by stagnation in shorthaul demand.
The latest Hotel Business Operator Sentiment Index for January 2026, conducted by the Thai Hotels Association (THA) and the Bank of Thailand, points to a cautious outlook among 99 respondents. While four-star and above properties anticipate growth from European markets, the wider industry warns that Thailand’s lingering negative safety image and the absence of new tourism stimulation projects are weakening its competitiveness against lower-priced regional rivals.
Occupancy rates in January averaged 77 per cent, stable month-on-month, with slight growth among four-star and above hotels. The February occupancy forecast stands at 73 per cent, though regional disparities are widening. Southern Thailand recorded an 84 per cent occupancy rate, significantly outperforming other regions, supported by major music festivals hosted in the area. In contrast, occupancy in the North fell to 68 per cent.
Labour shortages intensified in January, particularly in the East, although operators noted that the deficit is currently affecting service quality rather than capacity to accept guests.
The sentiment reflects volatile arrival figures reported by the Tourism and Sports Economics Division. January 2026 saw a sharp 39.6 per cent year-on-year decline in Chinese arrivals to 400,321, alongside a 31.5 per cent drop in the Malaysian market. However, the Russian and Indian markets showed resilience, posting growth of 6.6 per cent and 24.4 per cent respectively.
Despite the slow start to the year, the sector expects a near-term boost from Lunar New Year travel. The Tourism Authority of Thailand forecasts 42.23 billion baht (US$1.36 billion) in circulation during the February 13-22 festival period, a 13 per cent year-on-year increase, supported by the Amazing Thailand 2026 campaign fronted by Lisa Manobal as the Amazing Thailand Ambassador.
