THE GDP of the global travel industry is predicted to continue to register strong growth despite the surge in terror attacks and headwinds coming from macroeconomic factors.
Latest updates from the WTTC’s Economic Impact Reports 2016 shows that the travel sector is set to grow by 3.1 per cent this year, outpacing global economic growth forecast at 2.3 per cent.
Regionally, the outlook for South Asia will be the strongest at 5.9 per cent growth, driven mainly by India’s economic prospects.
North-east Asia is expected to experience solid growth too at 4.7 per cent, stimulated by China growing at 6.3 per cent, while South-east Asia is set to follow closely behind with 4 per cent growth.
Meanwhile, North America is predicted to grow at a moderate 3.1 per cent and Europe by 2.2 per cent. Latin America will be the worst performer, with an anticipated decline of 0.9 per cent because of declines in Brazil post-Olympics.
The growth expected in Asia comes as some European destinations become less attractive to international visitors.
In France, the sector’s direct contribution to GDP is still growing, but the forecast has been reduced from 2.9 per cent to 1.1 per cent, due to macroeconomic downgrades in other European countries, and compounded by recent terror-related atrocities.
In Turkey, growth in travel and tourism’s direct contribution to GDP has been reduced further from negative 0.2 per cent to negative 3.2 per cent, due to the spate of terror attacks, the diplomatic dispute with Russia, the failed coup, and proximity to the Syrian conflict.
“Our update report highlights the resilience of travellers and the robustness of our sector, as tourism continues to outpace global economic growth by nearly one per cent,” said David Scowsill, president and CEO of WTTC.
“Whilst we should not downplay the impact of incidents or turmoil at the individual country level, on a macroeconomic level, we continue to register strong growth.”